You might be thinking right now “what is this freak talking about?” And I don’t blame you. Don’t let a blue duck take you out sounds like some crazy passage from the paramilitary version of a Dr. Seuss book, and I’m questioning my sanity as I write this. But stick with me for a minute and this should all make sense…I hope.

You might be saying to yourself “there is no such thing as a blue duck!” and you are right, in the physical sense. The fact that we would never expect to see a blue duck is exactly what makes it possible.

Some people call these black swan events, I choose to call these blue duck events because it’s more memorable and well, I’m a little weird sometimes.

We all have differing opinions on some of the events below, but for the sake of this article we a going on the assumption that they all happened the way we have been told they did.

Events like the rise of Hitler, The stock market crash of 1929, the attack on Pearl Harbor, Sandy Hook, Columbine High School and even 911 are all events that were completely unexpected and changed history. If people would have paid more attention most of these events could have been avoided.

The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of a rare event is exactly what makes these blue duck events, or “black swan” if you’re not weird like me possible.

These hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology have the potential to be life changing on a personal scale to history changing on a global scale.

We spend so much time concentrating on food storage, supplies and living without modern convinces we forget that regardless of how much we prepare and how “ready” we think we are, something always come up that takes us by surprise.

We are preparing for some of these events, and for the most part this is exactly why we prepare. We want to be ready for any kind of natural disaster, we want to be prepared for any event that takes us off the grid and we want to be prepared for when our own government decides that we have done such a great job preparing that we need to share with the less fortunate…that’s a whole different article!

“True stability results when presumed order and presumed disorder are balanced. A truly stable system expects the unexpected and is prepared to be disrupted and waits to be transformed.”

Tim Robbins

What If?

The question I asked myself today is “by focusing all of my attention on all of this other stuff am I setting myself up to get blindsided?” Here are a few things that crossed my mind…

Insufficient Funds

What if I went to the bank to withdraw some money and I got the dreaded “insufficient funds” notice? Do I have enough cash on hand and precious metals to withstand this? And how comfortable am I with the amount of money I have in the bank and what would I do if it all disappeared? Because it could…


What if someone in my family got into a car accident? Would they know what to do? How would I react if it was something serious? And how would this affect me now and in the future?

I don’t even like to think about this, but if we want to take a realistic look at our situation death and unforeseen accidents should be part of your thought process, especially in a SHTF scenario.

Mind & Body

How healthy are my family and I really? We sometimes take this for granted because we can go on for years without anything too bad happening to us, but one day unexpectedly this could change causing a whole different set of problems in the future.

Sadly, this is something that never crossed my mind 20 years ago and now it seems to cross my mind daily. You gotta love getting old.

All in the Family

I’m pretty confident in my ability’s but what about my family? Would my children know how to get home if something happened? This is a tricky situation sometimes because the typical teenager has different concerns than we do, basically everything is a blue duck to them and they just roll with the punches.

I think this is something that is sometimes over looked and something we seriously need to consider. The reason most of us do this is to protect our family and without them everything else becomes irrelevant.

Can I live Off the Grid…Really?

As I just said, I am pretty confident in my ability’s but could I really grow enough food to sustain my family if I had to? Do I have the right resources in place for energy, water, shelter and self defense. Self sufficiency and living off the grid is going to be harder than we give it credit for, and there is no such thing as being completely self sufficient.

Missed it by That Much

Another question I asked myself is how many “projects” do I have that are half done? One glaring project is a well pump. I have a Huge resource of water sitting right below me but if the power goes out I have no way of getting to it.

We have been talking about getting a hand well pump for some time now but what if everything goes down the tubes tomorrow ? The answer is simple, we would be hosed. I guess it’s time to stop talking and start doing.

Make a list of unfinished projects so they don’t get placed on the back burner and finish them…a well pump is on the top of my list.

Shock & Awe

How will catastrophic events affect not only me but my family as well? And how well will we handle those situations psychologically?

Because we have had the fortune to live in a time without much turmoil on our soil  I’m not so sure that we are ready to handle it if enemy troops invaded or launched a missile at us, martial law was enacted or any event that cause mass casualty’s from biological elements to mother nature having a hissy fit.

I think that eventually we would overcome any situation like this but how will we react during the crisis? And will we be around after the crisis is the question.

The Dangers of Complacency

By nature we become terribly complaisant as we go through our lives, we drive back and forth to work, we go to the ATM when we need a few dollars and we assume that we are going to wake up the next day and do the same thing over again.

All of these routines have become habit and we tend to get tunnel vision and don’t see that guided missile coming right at us out of the corner of our eye.

Like I said earlier this is what we do, this is why we prepare, we don’t want to get blindsided by some catastrophic event and we want to be as ready as we can possibly be if something life changing does happen.

As prepared as we all “think” we are we need to take a realistic view of our situation and ask ourselves what if? And how many time have I justified not getting something done by saying “I’m doing pretty good” or “As soon as I get the time I am going to…”

As they say close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.

Here are a couple of things we are working on that might help you stay on top of things a little better and help you become more prepared at the same time…

Bug Out Bag Contest

Bug Out Bag Contest – Check This Out!We are giving away a bug out bag loaded with over $200 worth of supplies. This contest starts on Monday March 10th but you can get more information about this contest here.

We will have the rules set in place and send out an email to everyone that is entered on Monday so make sure you are signed up. You can use the link about to sign up of just click here to head over to the sign up page.


Bugged Out – Free Course

Bugged Out - Off the GridWe are also in the process of creating a course at the Academy that goes through not only bugging out but all the skills you will need for living off the grid. Click here for more information.

The reason we created this course along with the other courses at the academy is because even though we all know we should be prepared and should have the skills to live life as self reliant as possible, but it’s really hard to stay organized with all the information about what to do and when to do it.

At the academy we put everything in one place and go step by step through the process in as much detail as possible so you don’t have to hunt around the internet for the information you need. Click here to have a look at the Survivalist Prepper Academy.



Survival and being prepared should not only be a passion, it should be a lifestyle. The definition of a prepper is "An individual or group that prepares or makes preparations in advance of, or prior to, any change in normal circumstances, without substantial resources from outside sources" Like the Government, police etc. I don't believe that the end of the world will be the "end of the world" I believe it will be the end of the world as we know it now. You can also find me on Google Plus and Twitter

    1 Response to "Don’t Let a Blue Duck Take you Out"

    • Dale

      Comment written by anonymous:
      The points that you bring up are very valid and hard hitting. I find myself breathing a small sigh of relief (if not temporarily) when I’m able to complete another point on my prepping list. Last Christmas was a blessing in disguise as my family got my brother and me GHBs and survival stoves. He and I got each other survival/bugout items and gift cards to use towards said items. My parents got us full on hooked on this last year (summer 2013) when they started get all of us survival food in buckets. I truly started stocking up canned goods, spices and cases of bottled water to get me at what I call a beginning point for survival for me and my son (3 months of food and water.)

      Although sometimes it can be very frustrating seeing items on the market shelves and knowing at the near foreseeable time that I won’t have the resources available to purchase needed items until everyday needs and obligations are met within my household. But yet I remain vigilant and hopeful that I will be able to before a true crisis event happens.

      Having been an avid outdoorsman and camper for years I have all the camping equipment that I need. I recently added a very nice schrade survival knife (SCHf-9 for the curious) to my cache. I stocked up during Dec.2013 with small propane bottles for my Coleman camp stove. So I feel that I have that covered. I started Mar.2013 taking martial arts to be prepared defensively and with my tax refund this year I fully intend to bring into play more firearms and ammo.
      I can relate to getting older and not having the stamina that I once had. My other deep fear is being able to be healthy enough to bugout if it came to it. THAT is the next item on my agenda this summer…Working on endurance and hiking with a full BOB on my back and also getting back to mountain biking. (And maybe by Fall 2014 combining the BOB while biking.) My deep dark fear is that before I can get to the intermediate level of where I feel I should be with my prep/survival goals is that the S would HTF.

      I continue to push strong and strive to hit the marks set before me as I see an approaching storm on the horizon for all of us. Lord willing I’ll either reach those goals, the crisis will stave off for the near future or the good Lord returns to take us home soon.

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